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The price volatility of paraffin wax in China has significantly increased. During this period, multiple factors including changes in supply, demand dynamics, the macroeconomic environment, and market expectations have intertwined and resonated, collectively dictating the overall price trend. According to statistics, as of October 15th, the 2025 year-to-date average price for paraffin wax has declined compared to the same periods in 2022-2024. In terms of price points, the annual high occurred in March, while the low was recorded in October, indicating distinct phased characteristics.
From 2021 to 2025, the domestic paraffin wax market price exhibited a phased pattern of "rising first then falling, followed by fluctuating decline after the rise." In 2025, the overall price trend for domestic paraffin wax products has been steadily downward.
In the first quarter, domestic paraffin wax prices showed a trend of "steady upward movement followed by slowing and stagnation." Supported by low refinery inventories and tight supply of some resources, coupled with downstream stockpiling sentiment before the Spring Festival, prices continued to rise from January to February, reaching a high in late March (the second-highest level for the same period since 2014). However, starting in March, demand transmission encountered obstacles, with end-users concerned about high prices and shifting procurement to just-needed volumes. Intermediate traders saw compressed profits, leading to chaotic market negotiations and stagnant transactions. By the end of the quarter, inventory pressure became prominent, supply-demand contradictions intensified, prompting refineries to lower prices and ending the nearly six-month upward trend.
In the second quarter, paraffin wax prices first extended their decline, then bottomed out and rebounded. In April, impacted by the conclusion of Qingming Festival restocking and tariff uncertainties, end-user procurement was sluggish. Intermediate traders sold at a loss to stimulate sales, leading to price reductions for mainstream grades. The adjustment expanded in May, with downstream operating rates not increasing,(wait-and-see sentiment was strong), and sales were slow. June marked a turning point: the phased easing of Sino-US tariffs boosted export expectations, coupled with tight supply of some materials due to refinery maintenance. This renewed merchants' enthusiasm for stockpiling, resulting in a market that was "unusually active for the off-season." Prices stopped falling and rebounded, showing an overall "post-decline recovery" trend.
Price fluctuations intensified in the third quarter, showing a "rise first then sharp fall" pattern. In early July, supported by low refinery inventories, tight supply of some resources, and export demand, prices for mainstream grades increased. However, by month-end, high temperatures suppressed end-user demand, and trading activity weakened. August entered the traditional off-season, compounded by trade frictions and the impact of EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese candles. Downstream operations remained at low levels, focusing mainly on digesting inventories. Intermediate traders faced inventory pressure, promoted sales through discounts, saw profits compress, and prices became chaotic. In September, refineries successively adjusted prices downward. Although low prices stimulated some restocking demand, it failed to reverse the downward trend.
Looking at the fundamental market situation for the fourth quarter, domestic paraffin wax supply is expected to gradually stabilize and recover, while the export market is projected to show a declining trend. Overall, demand in the Q4 paraffin wax market is still expected to be dominated by just-needed consumption. Prices may present a stalemate pattern characterized by "resistance to the upside and insufficient support on the downside." In October, the semi-refined and crude paraffin wax markets might experience brief support, with prices rising steadily. However, influenced by multiple factors including weakening cost support, insufficient follow-through in demand, and the gradual emergence of seasonal factors, the market may enter a supply-demand stalemate. It is forecasted that paraffin wax prices will generally show a trend of stabilizing with a downward bias from November to December.
As market volatility continues and uncertainty remains high, partnering with a reliable supplier becomes crucial. KH Honor Wax provides consistent paraffin wax quality, flexible supply solutions, and timely market insights to help you make confident sourcing decisions. Contact us today to secure stable supply and customized support for your business.
