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In the third quarter of 2025, the domestic paraffin wax market overall exhibited a trend of "rising first and then falling," with significant price fluctuations and a noticeable decline in market trading activity. In early July, driven by low refinery inventories and growth in exports, mainstream listed prices were raised. However, as high temperatures persisted, terminal demand failed to keep pace, and market sentiment turned subdued. In August, although prices remained stable, downstream demand was weak due to the traditional off-season, trade frictions, and EU anti-dumping duties on candles. This led to increased discount promotions by intermediaries, squeezing profit margins. Since September, refinery listed prices have been continuously adjusted downward.
On the supply side, paraffin wax production decreased significantly in the third quarter due to plant maintenance shutdowns. The operating rate of domestic refineries from July to September remained low, ranging between 54% and 83%. Although maintenance at CNPC's Fushun refinery led to tighter supply, sufficient pre-existing stockpiles in the market prevented any significant resource shortage.
On the demand side, performance was weak in downstream sectors such as candles, PE pipes, and tires. Candle manufacturers faced low procurement enthusiasm due to cost pressures and the impact of EU anti-dumping duties; the PE pipe sector saw insufficient orders, dragged down by a sluggish real estate market and weather factors; while the tire market experienced weak domestic demand, though semi-steel tire exports remained resilient. Overall, demand transmission was sluggish, and market sentiment was dominated by a wait-and-see approach.
The export market also faced pressure. Paraffin wax exports in Q3 are estimated to have decreased by 7.18% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced restocking demand after refinery maintenance and intensified trade frictions.
The paraffin wax market in the fourth quarter is expected to continue the pattern of stronger supply than demand, with the price center likely to stabilize with a downward bias:
Cost Side: International oil prices are expected to fluctuate with a weak bias, providing limited cost support for paraffin wax and dampening market confidence.
Supply Side: With the restart of the Fushun石化 unit, supply is expected to gradually stabilize in Q4.
Demand Side: Domestic demand is constrained by anti-dumping policies and sluggish downstream industries, while exports are expected to slow down as the Christmas stocking season winds down and trade frictions persist. Overall demand pull is expected to be insufficient.
Overall, the paraffin wax market is closing 2025 amidst volatility and challenges. The decline from high levels in the third quarter has set the tone for the fourth-quarter trend, and dual pressures from the macroeconomic environment and industrial fundamentals are expected to persist until year-end. For market participants, operating against the backdrop of "stronger supply than demand," closely tracking refinery operational schedules and changes in overseas policies, and flexibly adjusting procurement and sales strategies will be key to navigating future market uncertainties.
Amid ongoing volatility and shifting supply-demand dynamics, having a trusted partner is essential. KH Honor Wax offers not only high-quality paraffin wax products but also timely market insights to help you adapt your procurement strategies with confidence. Contact us today to secure stable supply and customized solutions for your business.
