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Latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange reveals that the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has extended its gains for a fifth consecutive week, rising to 1570 points. This represents a significant increase of 10.5% compared to the previous week and a notable rebound of nearly 40% from the low point recorded in September. Freight rates on major global trade lanes collectively trended upwards, with routes to North America and Europe acting as the primary drivers of this growth.
The surge was particularly pronounced on North American routes. The spot freight rate to the US West Coast saw a substantial week-on-week increase of 22.9%, skyrocketing by 81.3% from the September low. Similarly, rates to the US East Coast rose by 13.4% week-on-week, accumulating a 44.15% increase since the September low.
European routes also demonstrated considerable strength, with the freight index climbing 17.4%. Specifically, rates to the East Mediterranean and West Mediterranean witnessed robust gains of 36.6% and 26.3% respectively, accompanied by reports of tight vessel space availability.
This sustained upward trend in freight costs is attributed to a combination of factors:
The approaching Christmas and Chinese New Year holidays have propelled foreign trade enterprises into their peak shipping season for restocking and shipments.
Ocean carriers have been strategically managing capacity through blank sailings and space control measures.
Geopolitical tensions, including the situation in the Red Sea, have forced vessel diversions on certain routes, disrupting supply.
The ongoing critical negotiation period for the 2026 European route long-term contracts is providing motivation for carriers to bolster current spot market rates.
A noteworthy development is the emerging divergence in performance across different trade lanes:
While Europe, Mediterranean, and North America lanes maintained the raised rates implemented earlier in the month.
Weak demand in the Mexican market prevented anticipated freight increases to the West Coast of South America from materializing.
Rates on Middle East, Indian Subcontinent, and Red Sea routes experienced minor corrections.
Southeast Asia routes continued to see robust demand, with space reportedly full and direct vessel slots being fully booked up to half a month in advance.
Industry analysis suggests potential headwinds in the longer term. According to Clarksons, global container shipping demand is forecasted to grow by 3.3% in 2025. However, this is expected to be outpaced by a projected vessel capacity growth of 6.7%. This potential supply-demand imbalance may cap the scope for further significant rate increases, potentially leading the market into a period of heightened volatility.
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